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全景网7月19日讯 Paul Schulte, Chief Investment Strategist, Lehman Brothers. His presentation topic is "Forging a path between inflationary energy shortages and deflationary capital shortages" Paul Schulte said, the bad policy responses to inflation ruining good markets.
Paul Schulte said, the risk is inflation accelerating, driving up global prices and China a net importer. In Asia, the Currency strength is China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand. The currency weakness is India, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Inflation has a problematic for Asia.
Paul Schulte said, government responses to inflation which are price caps and subsidies bad have been inflationary. Need to control inflation means greater currency appreciation likely.
Paul Schulte said, western banks" capital shortages increase systemic risks, reduce liquidity and Asian banks have opposite problem which is over-capitalized, over-deposited, asset inflation.
Paul Schulte said, food shortage is the systemic demand change. Weather is poor and demand dominates. Sovereign hoarding affects rice supply.80% of rice supply under partial/full ban. Ethanol policies all bad and policies discourage more production.前文翻译如下：
今天在深圳五洲宾馆举行的第七届中国证券投资基金国际论坛半年峰会上，雷曼兄弟亚洲投资公司首席亚洲策略师Paul Schulte作了如何应对通货膨胀性能源短缺与通货紧缩型资本短缺的主题演讲。他表示，是对通货膨胀错误的政策反应败坏了良好的市场。
他表示，全球经济风险在于通胀加快，拉动全球价格，中国在多种产品成为净进口国。当前亚洲，强势货币主要在中国、香港、新加坡、马来西亚、台湾和泰国，而弱势货币主要在印度、印度尼西亚、韩国和菲律宾。通货膨胀将会给亚洲带给巨大问题。
他强调，政府的价格限制和补贴恶化了通胀，只有更大的货币升值才能控制通胀。
他表示，西方银行资本短缺，减少流动资金，增加了系统性风险，而亚洲银行则有相反的问题，过度资本化及资产通胀。
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